丙烯日报：丙烯开工环比回落，下游开工亦下滑-20250912

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the maintenance dynamics of upstream PDH units and the resumption of work in downstream industries [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply side: Wanhua Penglai restarted, Hebei Haiwei has a restart expectation, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed to the middle and late ten - days, Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued until the end of the month, and the external supply of propylene in Shandong tightened. In the East China region, the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa continued to stop, and the overall propylene start - up decreased month - on - month, supporting the continuous increase of propylene spot prices [2] - Demand side: The current high price of propylene has significantly narrowed the profits of downstream industries, and the overall start - up has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up of PP decreased significantly month - on - month, the profits of butanol and octanol were acceptable, and the start - up increased month - on - month. The start - up of acrylic acid increased the most due to the restart of Wanhua's unit. The start - up of phenol - acetone decreased significantly due to the maintenance of Shenghong and Longjiang Chemical's units. Overall, the increase in propylene spot prices has compressed downstream profits, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries has weakened, which may continue to suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - Cost side: OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, but the geopolitical situation is still volatile, and oil prices are rising in a volatile manner. The price of external propane has been firm recently, and the cost support for propylene is acceptable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes charts of propylene's main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][31] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes charts of the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The report includes charts of the production profit and start - up rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][47][56][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report includes charts of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]