新能源及有色金属日报：受消息端扰动，工业硅多晶硅偏强运行-20250912

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon, short - term range operation for polysilicon [3][11] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [4][11] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the market may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, and the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [3][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,715 yuan/ton and closed at 8,740 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 287,771 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,093 lots, an increase of 48 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in many regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon was also slightly adjusted up [1] - As of September 11, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 539,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 119,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 420,000 tons, unchanged from last week [1] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. After two weeks of low - level stability, downstream enterprises completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories have a stronger willingness to support prices [2] Strategy - The spot price follows the futures price with a slight increase, and the inventory remains flat. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there are policies, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures was strong, opening at 53,200 yuan/ton and closing at 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the previous day. The position was 136,326 lots, and the trading volume was 278,296 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons, up 3.79% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW, down 1.78% month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,200 tons, up 3.31% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 13.88GW, up 0.73% month - on - month [7] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [7][8] Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously followed up. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on dips [9] Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption and new capacity production in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in the operating rate of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [6][11]