农产品日报：购销清淡，豆粕维持震荡-20250912

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the soybean meal industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn industry: Cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current growth of US soybeans is good, with a high excellent and good rate. The field survey by Profarmer for the new - season yield is optimistic, but the USDA's adjustment of new - season US soybeans needs continuous attention. In China, the soybean arrival volume is still high, the supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news has been frequent this month, and the expected improvement of trade policies will put pressure on Brazilian premiums, weakening the support for soybean meal prices. Attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean production and policy changes [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is relatively abundant as new - season grain sources are concentrated in the market, and the remaining old grain of traders is limited. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have relatively low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and a variety of substitute grains. Attention should be paid to the listing dynamics of new - season corn [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3088 yuan/ton yesterday, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+1.34%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 58, down 32 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 118, down 12 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 118, down 12 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 113, down 14 from the previous day [1] - Market Information: On September 10, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina said that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with the previous year [1] Market Analysis - The growth of US soybeans is good, and the new - season yield is expected to be high. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. Policy changes may affect the price of soybean meal [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2202 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.23%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2477 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 108, down 5 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, up 11 from the previous day [3] - Market Information: On September 10, the Rosario Grain Exchange said that if the rainfall is normal during the growth period, the corn production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season may reach a record high of 61 million tons, and the production forecast for the 2024/25 season was raised to 50 million tons. Brazil's corn export in August was slower than last year. From September 1 - 5, the export volume was 1.3 million tons, and the daily average export volume from September so far was 259,489 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%. The export value reached 260 million US dollars, and the average export price was 199.4 US dollars/ton, a 2.5% increase from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the supply of corn is relatively abundant as new - season grain sources enter the market. The demand side shows different situations for deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises, and attention should be paid to the listing of new - season corn [4] Strategy - Adopt a cautiously bearish strategy [5]