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液碱工厂库存去库,关注非铝接货情绪
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-12 05:10
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant as domestic PVC device overhauls decrease and new production devices increase. Downstream demand remains weak, with low - level开工 of downstream products and mainly rigid - demand procurement. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies. Social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply from chlor - alkali enterprises is at a relatively high level. The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary according to Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4888 yuan/ton (+31), the East China basis is - 218 yuan/ton (- 11), and the South China basis is - 128 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (- 22), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (- 43), and the PVC export profit is 9.7 dollars/ton (- 5.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.6 tons (+0.4), the social inventory is 53.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 tons (- 2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2590 yuan/ton (+14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 129 yuan/ton (- 14) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 532.53 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (- 3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 83.40% (- 0.80%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.38% (- 1.20%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The number of domestic PVC device overhauls continues to decrease, and new production devices are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream product开工 remains low, with enterprises purchasing only for rigid - demand. The raw material restocking willingness during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs attention. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of PVC continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The futures warehouse receipts are increasing, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The开工 rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly increasing and at a high level in the same period [3]. - Demand: The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - Cost and profit: The electricity price in Shandong has a slight increase in September, and there is some resistance from downstream after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will continue to increase, and cost support remains. The chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment - Inter - delivery: Long V01 and short V05 to capture price fluctuations - Inter - variety: No strategy Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see