新能源及有色金属日报：CPI数据走高，关税对通胀影响或逐步显现-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of copper is rated as cautiously bullish, and the recommended strategies are long-short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, there are certain disturbances in electrolytic copper production, and the pattern of persistently low TC prices is difficult to change. Meanwhile, demand is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips for hedging. Considering the "Golden September and Silver October" period and relatively low domestic warehouse receipts, the near - month contracts may rise again, so it is not advisable to establish short positions in domestic near - month contracts for arbitrage trading [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,950 yuan/ton and closed at 80,130 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 80,160 yuan/ton and closed at 80,490 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the same day [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper stabilized and rebounded. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,110 - 80,240 yuan/ton, with a premium of 85 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan) over the main contract. The import loss widened to 500 yuan/ton. Due to reduced circulating supply and a 0.12 - thousand - ton inventory decline in Shanghai, the sales pressure eased, and the spot trading sentiment improved. It is expected that the spot premium will remain firm [2]. Important Information Summary - Economic Data: The US CPI annual rate in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months. The monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January and higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting was 93.9%, and the probability of a 50 - BP cut was 6.1% [3]. - Mine End: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals Ltd. about restarting the closed Cobre Panamá copper mine, with discussions expected to start at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit of the mine will start in the coming weeks, which will take three to four months to complete [3]. - Smelting and Import: Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons. In the first seven months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 1.56 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - Consumption: In August 2025, the domestic output of electrolytic copper foil was 103,600 tons, a 1.97% month - on - month increase. It is expected that in September, the copper foil market will enter the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period, with prices expected to stabilize and gradually recover. The seasonal stocking demand in the downstream power battery and consumer electronics sectors is expected to increase, which may drive up orders for lithium - ion copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil [4]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 154,175 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 902 tons to 20,028 tons. On September 11, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous week [4]. Strategy - Absolute Price: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging. - Arbitrage: Long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5].