光大期货软商品日报-20250912

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.1% to 66.74 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF601 remained flat at 13,835 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 2,390 lots to 502,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was about 15,186 yuan per ton, down 24 yuan from the previous day, and the national average cotton market price was 15,249 yuan per ton, down 37 yuan. The upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton and the pressure on the demand side and clothing exports are the main factors affecting the recent cotton price. However, the downside space is limited due to the improvement in downstream开机 conditions during the traditional peak season, the cost - end constraint with the expected purchase price between 6.2 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram, and the expected tight - balance state of China's cotton supply - demand balance sheet in the new year. It is expected that the short - term Zhengzhou cotton will have limited downside space and will fluctuate at a low level [2]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups were 5,830 - 5,940 yuan per ton, with some up 10 yuan per ton; Yunnan sugar - making groups' quotes were 5,740 - 5,790 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton; and the mainstream quotes of processing sugar mills were in the range of 5,950 - 6,080 yuan per ton, remaining stable. The recent rebound of Brazilian ethanol prices has curbed the continuous rise of the sugar - making ratio, providing some support for sugar prices. Although domestic sugar futures prices have stopped falling and closed with two consecutive positive lines, caution is still needed regarding the rebound height, which mainly depends on the lead of raw sugar. It is currently regarded as a weak - side fluctuation, and future attention should be paid to the pre - sale situation of new sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40, up 5; the main contract basis was 1,414, down 17. The arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,186 yuan per ton, down 24 yuan, and the national average was 15,249 yuan per ton, down 37 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 26, unchanged; the main contract basis was 379, down 21. The spot price in Nanning was 5,890 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On September 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5,159, down 163 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were 15,186 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,214 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,274 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,316 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.6, down 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.4, up 0.3; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.2, down 0.1 [4]. - Sugar: On September 11, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,890 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 11,739, down 33 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 6 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts) [7][10][12][14][17]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile - category senior analyst title in 2024 [21]. 5. Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [24].