Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each black commodity, the short - term price trends are predicted as follows: steel (narrow - range consolidation), iron ore (fluctuation), coking coal (fluctuation), coke (fluctuation), manganese silicon (fluctuation), and ferrosilicon (fluctuation) [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the price of rebar futures fluctuated and declined. Spot prices were stable with some declines, and trading volume decreased. Rebar production increased, inventory accumulated for the seventh consecutive week, and apparent demand declined slightly. It is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly move in a narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1] - For iron ore, the price of the main futures contract first fell and then rose. Supply decreased, while demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. Under the influence of multiple factors, it is expected that ore prices will fluctuate [1] - For coking coal, the futures price rose. Supply saw stable resumption, but downstream demand was mainly based on on - demand procurement. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1] - For coke, the futures price rose. Supply increased as coke production increased, while demand was weak due to poor steel consumption. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1] - For manganese silicon, the futures price fluctuated weakly. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand was expected to increase. With cost support, it is expected that the manganese silicon market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1][3] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price fluctuated weakly. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand was expected to increase. With cost support, it is expected that the ferrosilicon market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 133,000 in open interest. The national rebar production this week decreased by 67,500 tons to 2.1193 million tons compared with the previous week, and the apparent demand decreased by 40,000 tons to 1.9807 million tons [1] - Iron Ore: The closing price of the main futures contract i2601 was 795.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.18% from the previous trading day. The global iron ore shipments decreased from the high level. The molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons compared with the previous week [1] - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1141.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.5 yuan/ton or 2.19%, with an increase of 13,673 in open interest. Some coal types in coal mines accumulated inventory, and downstream demand was mainly based on on - demand procurement [1] - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1630 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton or 1.68%, with an increase of 472 in open interest. Coke production increased steadily, and some steel mills began to control the procurement rhythm [1] - Manganese Silicon: The main contract price was 5838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the previous day, with an increase of 2085 in open interest. The 9 - month silicon - manganese tender was 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with August [1][3] - Ferrosilicon: The main contract price was 5626 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared with the previous day, with a decrease of 5691 in open interest. A large steel group in Hebei tendered 3151 tons of 75B ferrosilicon in September, an increase of 316 tons compared with August [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their latest values and month - on - month changes [4] - Profits and Cross - Commodity Spreads: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio) are provided, along with their latest values and month - on - month changes [4] 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of main contracts for various commodities from 2022 - 2026 [17][19][22][24] - 3.3 Inter - Period Contract Spreads: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities from 2019 - 2026 [26][29][31][32][34][36][38][40] - 3.4 Cross - Commodity Contract Spreads: Charts show the cross - commodity contract spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio) from 2020 - 2025 [42][43][44][46] - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts show the profits of rebar main contracts (such as coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread) from 2020 - 2025 [46][47][51] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [53][54]
黑色商品日报-20250912
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 05:13