原油日报：市场等待特朗普对俄罗斯下一步动作-20250912

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The market is still waiting for Trump's next move regarding Russia. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia is impending, and there are expectations of an increase in Russian oil exports after refinery attacks. The oil market is influenced by multiple factors including sanctions, OPEC+ production decisions, and inventory levels [1][2] 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the October - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price dropped $1.30 to $62.37 per barrel, a 2.04% decline; the November - delivery Brent crude oil futures price in London fell $1.12 to $66.37 per barrel, a 1.66% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.45% at 482 yuan per barrel [1] - The European Central Bank forecasts oil prices to be $69.7 per barrel in 2025, $65.1 in 2026, and $65.1 in 2027 [1] - OPEC's monthly report maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA reported that Russia's August crude oil and petroleum product sales revenue dropped to one of the lowest levels since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Due to factors like export decline and price discounts, Russia's August oil revenue decreased by $920 million to $13.51 billion compared to July. Oil and fuel exports dropped by 70,000 barrels per day to 7.3 million barrels per day, with crude exports down 30,000 barrels per day and refined product exports down 40,000 barrels per day. Crude production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels per day, meeting OPEC+ quota requirements [1] - The IEA raised the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. The oil market is affected by potential supply losses from new sanctions and OPEC+ production increases along with growing global oil inventories [1] Investment Logic - The market focus is on Russia. The EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia are coming, and after Russian refinery attacks, Russian oil exports from western ports may increase by 200,000 barrels per day. The market is observing Trump's next move [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]