纯苯苯乙烯日报：苯乙烯开工回落，下游开工提升-20250912

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, new domestic production capacity will be concentrated in August - September, leading to high supply pressure. The downstream开工率 has weakened again, and the demand for pure benzene has been affected. The performance of downstream industries during the peak season has fallen short of expectations [3]. - In the styrene market, the downstream提货量 during the peak season is acceptable, but the number of maintenance operations has increased, causing the开工率 to peak and decline, and the port inventory has also started to decline. The downstream开工率 of EB has recovered, but the ABS inventory pressure is relatively large [3]. - The market is starting to pay attention to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on different industries. In the petrochemical industry, further details on the rectification of plants over 20 years old are awaited [3]. 3) Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 6), and the spot - M2 spread is - 20 yuan/ton (+ 5) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 44 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 132 dollars/ton (- 4), the FOB Korea processing fee is 114 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 69.6 dollars/ton (+ 7) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 368 yuan/ton (+ 4), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 14.40 million tons (- 0.50 million tons) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 176,500 tons (- 20,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 87,000 tons (- 9,500 tons), and the operating rate is 75.0% (- 4.8%) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - EPS: The production profit is 196 yuan/ton (- 15), and the operating rate is 61.02% (+ 8.49%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 15), and the operating rate is 61.90% (+ 0.90%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 96 yuan/ton (+ 23), and the operating rate is 70.00% (+ 1.00%) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1,685 yuan/ton (+ 5), and the operating rate is 86.21% (- 4.21%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 297 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 69.00% (- 6.00%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 29 yuan/ton (+ 70), and the operating rate is 63.52% (- 4.44%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1,287 yuan/ton (- 13), and the operating rate is 64.20% (+ 4.20%) [1]. 4) Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: Do a positive spread for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: Expand the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low in the short term [4].