燃料油日报：盘面震荡运行，低硫油市场结构小幅转弱-20250912

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.47% at 2,802 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.53% at 3,373 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a range-bound oscillation, with geopolitical risks remaining due to the volatile situations in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. However, with OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to loosen after the peak season, so the short-term direction of oil prices is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of market rebalancing, with current mixed long and short factors. The near-term supply is relatively abundant, and Singapore's inventory is at a high level. As summer ends, demand in the Middle East is expected to decline, but there is still room for export growth. Short-term market contradictions are limited, and high inventories need to be digested. If cracking callbacks stimulate refinery demand, the market will gain new support [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, current market contradictions are limited. Domestic production has increased but remains at a low level. The external market spread structure has weakened marginally, and downstream marine fuel demand is average. With the cracking spread at a medium to low level, the downward space is limited. In the medium term, it still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, downward in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, downward in the medium term [2] - No strategy for cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, or options [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]