新能源及有色金属日报：现货贴水环比淡季表现更弱-20250912

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Spot water further expands, downstream high - price fear leads to rigid demand restocking. Under the consumption recovery and domestic supply pressure, the spot water expands compared to the off - season. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing while domestic inventory is increasing. The domestic fundamentals are weak, but overseas factors support the price [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content a) Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $23.01/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 105 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On September 11, 2025, the opening price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, the closing price is 22,250 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 93,321 lots, and the open interest is 100,442 lots. The highest price is 22,285 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 22,145 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 154,200 tons, with a change of 2,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 50,625 tons, with a change of - 200 tons from the previous trading day [3]. b) Market Analysis - Spot water expands, downstream restocks due to rigid demand. There is a contradiction between domestic and overseas markets. Overseas inventory is decreasing and there is a risk of cornering the market, while domestic inventory is increasing and the supply pressure is high. In August, zinc ingot production increased by 28% year - on - year [4]. c) Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5]