新能源及有色金属日报：现货成交仍以刚需为主，铅价维持震荡格局-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: On Hold [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The peak - season demand for lead is not obvious, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. In September, this pattern may not change significantly. However, under the background of the Fed's interest rate cut, lead prices may maintain a shock - strengthening pattern. It is recommended to sell high and buy low between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.17/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, waste white shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, and waste black shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, a change of 105 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,772 lots, a decrease of 3,543 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 49,603 lots, a decrease of 864 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,920 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,860 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close. Some downstream battery enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to fear of price drops, and the market transaction was mainly for rigid demand, but there was a slight improvement in some areas [2] Inventory - On September 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 70 tons compared with the same period last week. As of September 11, the LME lead inventory was 232,625 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [3]