新能源及有色金属日报：去库开始，电解铝微观难有利空影响-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with social inventories starting to decline. Macro factors drive the upward trend of aluminum prices, and there are few negative micro - factors. Consumption is showing signs of improvement, and aluminum prices may see a resonance upward trend [6]. - The alumina market still has an oversupply situation, but the current price has reached the marginal production cost. There are factors such as mine price support and north - to - south transportation, but there is no clear upward drive, so the price is treated neutrally [8]. - The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, with cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities as the 11 - contract turns into a peak - season contract [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On September 11, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was 0 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,740 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 120 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,810 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,780 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,915 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,920 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,885 lots, and the open interest was 204,582 lots [2]. Alumina Spot - On September 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,025 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,005 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,065 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,230 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 338 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 11, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,923 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,945 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton (0.79% change). The highest price was 2,962 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,923 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 249,216 lots, and the open interest was 273,311 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - On September 11, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 16,000 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 16,200 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 70,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 27 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Although the strong - side oscillation of aluminum prices suppresses downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the transition from the off - season to the peak season is a fact. Spot discounts are slightly repaired, and social inventories enter the destocking cycle. Macro factors drive the price increase, and there are few negative micro - factors. Supply remains unchanged, consumption shows improvement, and downstream processing enterprises' production and operating rates increase [6]. Alumina - The latest transaction in Western Australia shows a decline in price. The oversupply pattern remains, but the price has reached the marginal production cost. There is support from the mine end, and the north - to - south transportation keeps the southern price firm, but there is no clear upward drive [8]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, the price fluctuates with the aluminum price, there is supply tension of scrap and raw aluminum, and there is cost support. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10]. Arbitrage - Shanghai aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [10].