贵金属日报：CPI符合预期叠加弱势就业数据，降息预期不改-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Core View of the Report - The CPI data has shown marginal warming, but the weak employment data has left the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a similar pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The annual rate of the US CPI in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months; the monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January, higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, with a market expectation of 235,000. The CME Fedwatch shows that the expectation of a rate cut has not wavered, with a 93.9% probability of a 25BP rate cut and a 6.1% probability of a 50BP rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 833.38 yuan/gram and closed at 830.78 yuan/gram, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 829.52 yuan/gram and closed at 829.26 yuan/gram, a -0.18% change from the previous afternoon's close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,803.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,798.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 301,985 lots, and the open interest was 203,343 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,777 yuan/kg and closed at 9,886 yuan/kg, a +0.90% change from the previous afternoon's close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 11, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.024%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.50%, a change of -0.41BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 11, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 88 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 39 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 308,441 lots, a change of -41.25% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 660,300 lots, a change of -38.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 977.95 tons the previous day, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was -9.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -865.00 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 84.79, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.48, a change of -0.11% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On the previous trading day (September 11, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 36,270 kg, a change of -26.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 304,080 kg, a change of -46.33% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,442 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 540 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 815 yuan/gram and 845 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10]