Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of strong expectations and weak reality continues, and polyolefins are in weak consolidation. Multiple PE units are under maintenance, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate and a projected slight relief in supply pressure, while new PP production capacity is ramping up. Downstream demand is in the transitional period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream sectors such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat compared to the previous period. Upstream production inventory has slightly increased, mid - stream inventory has decreased, and downstream rigid - demand procurement has increased. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is in weak consolidation, the profit of PDH - based PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH units has increased [2] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, as well as the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based), PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), and the operating rates of PE and PP, along with the weekly production and maintenance losses of PE and PP, and the capacity utilization rate of PDH - based PP [22][23][29] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China are presented [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profits of LL and PP, the export profit of PP to Southeast Asia, and the price differences between LL in different regions (US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Europe FD - China CFR) and PP in different regions (PP homopolymer injection molding in US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR) are shown [44][51][54] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, winding films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP are presented [63][64][73] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [75][79][81]
聚烯烃日报:强预期弱现实,聚烯烃弱势整理-20250912
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-12 05:27