化工日报：轮胎开工率环比回升-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both RU and NR are rated as neutral. BR is also rated as neutral [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices are expected to rise, weakening cost - side support. After short - term maintenance of tire factories, the operating rate will rebound during the traditional peak season, and demand is expected to improve. Port and social inventories are currently decreasing but will rise again after downstream restocking. - For BR, with some device maintenance plans, supply is expected to decline. After tire factory maintenance, the operating rate will rebound during the peak season, and demand is expected to improve. The overall supply - demand situation shows a slight improvement, and prices are expected to rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,905 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,655 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Thai 20 - standard rubber was 1,860 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - standard rubber was 1,775 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase [2] - Export: From January to July 2025, Thailand exported 1.586 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) to the world, a 5% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, Thailand exported 622,000 tons of natural rubber to China, a 7% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a 5.4% increase [2][3] - Sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 11, 2025, the RU basis was - 855 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 905 yuan/ton (-75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,448 yuan/ton (-19.57), the NR basis was 592 yuan/ton (+54) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.79 Thai baht/kg (-0.19), Thai latex was 56.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 52.20 Thai baht/kg (-0.35), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.55) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.31% (+5.57%), and that of semi - steel tires was 72.61% (+5.69%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,257,715 tons (-7,183), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 592,275 tons (-10,020), the RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (-16,410), and the NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+907) [6] Cis - polybutadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On September 11, 2025, the BR basis was - 105 yuan/ton (-35), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton (-150), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton (-80), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,605 yuan/ton (-99) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 73.48% (-2.68%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 8,210 tons (+950), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,300 tons (+1,650) [6] Strategy - RU and NR: Neutral. With less rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices are expected to rise, weakening cost - side support. The operating rate of tire factories will rebound, and demand is expected to improve. After downstream restocking, port inventory is expected to rise again [7] - BR: Neutral. Some BR devices will be under maintenance, and supply is expected to decline. The operating rate of tire factories will rebound, and demand is expected to improve. The overall supply - demand situation shows a slight improvement, and prices are expected to rise, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7]