尿素日报：尿素出口节奏提升，港口库存去库-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, conduct positive spreads trading for UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spreads trading for UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading volume. Although the autumn agricultural fertilizer season has started in some areas and there is rigid demand from the compound fertilizer and melamine industries, industrial demand was previously affected by the military parade and is gradually recovering [2] - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, but the cost support is average [2] - The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, as the bid volume is at a historical high. September is still an export window period, with accelerating export rhythm and declining port inventories. The export volume in August and September is expected to be high, which will lead to a decrease in urea inventories. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7][8][15][17] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][23] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][29][32] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [33][35][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [54][57][61]