碳酸锂日报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.25% to 71,000 yuan/ton, while the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 600 yuan/ton to 72,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped 600 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 250 yuan/ton to 74,450 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 290 tons to 38,391 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased slightly. The weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. The output of lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 300 tons to 12,709 tons, from lepidolite by 130 tons to 2,730 tons, from salt lakes by 62 tons to 2,655 tons, and from recycling by 52 tons to 1,869 tons. The expected output of lithium carbonate in September will increase by 1.7% to 86,730 tons. On the demand side, the expected output of ternary materials in September will decrease by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, while the expected output of lithium iron phosphate will increase by 6% to 335,250 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory depletion accelerated, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons [3]. - The news that Ningde's Jianxiawo project may resume production was released again. Under the resumption expectation, the long - position logic was weakened. Before the actual resumption of the project, in the context of strong demand, the downstream procurement demand will support the price. The actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs to be continuously monitored [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 71,000 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,020 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan [5]. - Lithium ores: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 844 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,075 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,845 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonates and hydroxides: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 74,450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 79,420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 69,410 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 9 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 1,600 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 8,388 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 79,200 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 78,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 73,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 92,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The prices of most ternary materials remained unchanged. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,470 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) was 32,075 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 29,290 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The prices of lithium manganate and cobaltate remained unchanged [5]. - Batteries: The prices of most lithium batteries remained unchanged, with only a slight increase in the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries from 4.34 yuan/piece to 4.40 yuan/piece [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts present the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. - Price differences: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][20][21][22]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts illustrate the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [23][24][26][27][28][29][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][32][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from January to September 2025 [36][37][38][39]. - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a junior gold investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the 2016 Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [44]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [45]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [45].