FICC日报：国内政策预期升温，关注中国8月金融数据-20250912

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectation is rising, and attention should be paid to China's financial data in August and subsequent consumption - related incremental policies [2]. - Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals and policy dynamics, and the "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [3]. - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and overseas inflation has a smoother upward path [4]. - For commodities, in the domestic market, pay attention to the black and new - energy metal sectors; overseas, focus on precious metals and agricultural products. In terms of strategy, go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising global inflation. China's July export by dollar - terms increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and in August, it increased by 4.4% year - on - year with a slowdown in growth rate. The import growth rate also slowed down. The domestic economic data still faced pressure, but the official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4 [2]. - The government introduced a series of policies, including measures to stabilize the real estate market, promote service consumption, and expand effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September [2]. - On September 11, A - shares rose significantly, with the ChiNext Index soaring over 5% [2]. US Situation - The US ISM manufacturing index in August continued to contract for the sixth month, with improved new orders and a falling price index. The core CPI in August was in line with expectations and the previous value, and the main driving force for price increases came from cars and services [3]. - The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and the Supreme Court will quickly hear the case. Trump said that India and the US were continuing negotiations to resolve trade barriers [3]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 turned dovish, paving the way for a September rate cut by the Fed. The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in August were worse than expected, and the Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle [4]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second time, and traders reduced their bets on the ECB's easing policy [4]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, precious metals and agricultural products can be considered due to inflation expectations [5]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. The medium - term supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention [5]. - Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental signals. Precious metals have an opportunity for long - term allocation as the Fed is about to restart the rate - cut cycle [5]. Strategy - Go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips in commodity and stock index futures [6]. Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September 12 to introduce the achievements of fiscal reform and development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [2][8]. - The US Senate Banking Committee approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor [4][8]. - The US government appealed against the ruling that blocked the president from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook [4][8]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, adjusted inflation expectations, and the euro fell [8]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung said that the South Korean stock market was still seriously undervalued and left the capital gains tax issue to the National Assembly [4][8]. - The IEA expects a record - high oil surplus in 2026 due to OPEC+ production increases [8].