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尿素早评:现货走低关注后市逢低做多机会-20250912
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-12 05:37

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating lower due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips in the future. Considering both valuation and drivers, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, with about 20% of urea facilities over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising given the easing of China-India relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Spread - Futures Prices: On September 11, the closing prices of UR01 in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were 1671 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, and 1660 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.12%, -1.28%, and -0.60% compared to September 10. The closing prices of UR05 and UR09 were 1719 yuan/ton and 1595 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00% and -1.12% [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained): On September 11, the spot prices in Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu were 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1650 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Hebei decreased by 2.34% compared to September 10, while the prices in Northeast China and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -59 yuan/ton on September 11, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to September 10. The 01 - 05 spread was -48 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream Costs: On September 11, the anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi were 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi decreased by 2.22% compared to September 10, while the price in Henan remained unchanged [1]. - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Shandong decreasing by 0.33% compared to September 10 and the price in Jiangsu remaining unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 292643 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].