中辉能化观点-20250912

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [3] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and oil prices are trending downward. Short positions should be held [1]. - LPG: Cost - end drags, and there is pressure on the upside. Light - position short attempts are recommended [1]. - L: Short - position trend continues. Wait for a pullback to try long positions [1]. - PP: Short - position trend continues. Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks [1]. - PVC: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Be cautious about short - chasing [1]. - PX: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose. Hold short positions and sell call options [1]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose in Q4. Hold short positions and expand processing margins on pullbacks [2]. - MEG: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance, but cost support is weakening. Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: Fundamentals are weak, but look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels [2]. - Urea: Domestic fundamentals are loose. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract [2]. - Asphalt: High valuation and weak cost - end. Hold short positions [3]. - Glass: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend. Observe the market [3]. - Soda ash: Short - term fundamentals are less negative. Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.86%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 0.68% [5]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical risks are controllable; OPEC+ plans to increase production in October; US oil consumption peak season ends, and demand support weakens. There is a high probability that prices will be pushed down to around $60 in the medium - to long - term [6]. - Fundamentals: IEA expects 2025 supply to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day; OPEC+ production in August was 42.4 million barrels per day. OPEC predicts 2025 global oil demand growth of 1.29 million barrels per day. As of September 5, US commercial crude and refined product inventories increased [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the $60 break - even point for new shale oil wells. SC focus range is [470 - 490] [8]. LPG - Market Review: On September 11, the PG main contract closed at 4453 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [11]. - Basic Logic: Upstream crude oil has supply - demand imbalance, and LPG is pressured on the upside. Supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight increase in inventory [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. PG focus range is [4400 - 4500] [13]. L - Market Review: The L01 closing price was 7209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.0% [16]. - Basic Logic: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the short - position trend continues. Production is expected to recover next week, and the demand side is strengthening [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. L focus range is [7150 - 7250] [17]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 closing price was 6939 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [20]. - Basic Logic: Cost support is insufficient. Production is expected to decline this week, and downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks. PP focus range is [6900 - 7000] [22]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 closing price was 4847 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.0% [25]. - Basic Logic: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Production is expected to decline next week [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be cautious about short - chasing. V focus range is [4800 - 4900] [27]. PX - Market Review: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton [30]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, and demand is weak but expected to improve. Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and sell call options. PX511 focus range is [6680 - 6785] [31]. PTA - Market Review: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [33]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while demand is showing signs of recovery. TA processing margins are low [34]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and expand PTA processing margins on pullbacks. TA01 focus range is [4670 - 4720] [35]. MEG - Market Review: On September 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [37]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, and inventory is low. Cost support is weakening [38]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities. EG01 focus range is [4255 - 4300] [39]. Methanol - Market Review: On September 5, the methanol spot price in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton [40]. - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [41]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels. MA01 focus range is [2370 - 2400] [42].