铅锌日评：或偏强整理-20250912

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals. The tight raw materials and weak demand are in a game. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices may run strongly within a range [1]. - For zinc, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak. However, the low LME zinc inventory overseas, continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3, and high capital concentration lead to an upward - oscillating trend of London zinc, which boosts Shanghai zinc. Affected by the interest rate cut expectation, Shanghai zinc may be strongly sorted in the short term, but the upside space is expected to be limited due to the fundamental suppression [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On September 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 41,772 hands, down 7.82%; the position was 49,603 hands, down 1.71% [1]. - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,996.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.48%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.46, up 0.15% [1]. News and Events - In late August 2025, Shekou Customs seized 26.5 tons of undeclared hazardous goods lead - acid batteries in the freight export channel [1]. - On September 10, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 44.17 US dollars/ton, and the position increased by 1,064 hands to 157,455 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has slightly declined. In the secondary lead sector, the operation enthusiasm of refineries has weakened, and the scope of production cuts and suspensions has expanded [1]. - The terminal market has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not been reflected. Dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to try long positions with a light position [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On September 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,250 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 93,321 hands, up 11.46%; the position was 100,442 hands, down 2.53% [1]. - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,905.00 US dollars/ton, up 0.61%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.66, down 0.45% [1]. News and Events - As of September 11, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 154,200 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons compared with September 4 and 2,100 tons compared with September 8 [1]. - On September 10, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 23.01 US dollars/ton, and the position increased by 1,496 hands to 201,219 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee has been rising. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index increased to 96.25 US dollars/dry ton [1]. - The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend. Affected by the off - season and environmental protection restrictions in the north, the operation of some downstream enterprises has weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being and short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [1].