国贸期货日度策略参考-20250912

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Aluminum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Stainless Steel, Iron Ore (long - term), Palm Oil (long - term), Rapeseed Oil (long - term), MO1, Calcium Carbide, PG (long - term) [1] - Bearish: Lithium Carbonate, Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) (short - term), Ethylene Glycol, Benzene, Styrene, CP (short - term) [1] - Neutral: Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Coke, Sugar, Corn (C01), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Short - Fiber, Natural Gas, Propylene, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2) Core Views - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1] - The expected Fed rate cut in September supports gold prices, and gold may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1] - Weak US non - farm data has led to recession concerns, but the expected Fed rate cut limits the downside of copper prices [1] - With the approaching consumption peak season and the expected Fed rate cut, aluminum prices are expected to run strongly [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities are complex, affected by factors such as production capacity changes, inventory levels, and macro - economic policies [1] 3) Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - Stock Index Futures: Short - term adjustments may offer long - position opportunities due to widened discount and liquidity drive [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported by expected Fed rate cut in September, may run strongly at high levels short - term [1] - Silver: May run strongly at high levels short - term, beware of increased volatility [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Weak US non - farm data pressures prices, but expected Fed rate cut limits downside [1] - Aluminum: Expected to run strongly with approaching consumption peak season and expected Fed rate cut [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals due to increased production and inventory, consider long - position in far - month contracts [1] - Zinc: Social inventory increase pressures prices, but LME inventory decline and macro - support limit downside [1] - Nickel: Follows macro - trends and may run strongly short - term, mid - long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - Stainless Steel: Raw material support strengthens, futures may fluctuate strongly short - term [1] - Tin: Overall supported, look for low - long opportunities [1] - Silicon: May fluctuate due to supply resumption and potential policy changes [1] - Polycrystalline Silicon: Expected to rise due to capacity reduction and low terminal demand [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Expected to decline due to expected mine复产 and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Ferrous Metals - Rebar: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, macro - drive is positive [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Similar to rebar, valuation neutral, industry drive unclear, macro - drive positive [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term回调 risk, long - term bullish, wait for callback to go long [1] - Soybean Oil: Domestic inventory may pressure the market, but bullish in Q4, look for callback to go long [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread strategy due to trade - flow possibilities [1] - Cotton: New cotton supply may be tight short - term, acquisition game is a focus [1] - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate weakly, short - term downside limited [1] - Corn: New crop expected to be abundant, C01 suggest shorting at high prices [1] - MO1: In an upward channel, affected by USDA report, short - term fluctuate, buy at low prices [1] - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread due to price changes and inventory adjustments [1] - Log: Fundamentals unchanged, futures may fluctuate weakly [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical situation, OPEC+ policy, and expected Fed rate cut [1] - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil, affected by multiple factors [1] - BR Rubber: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory and device maintenance [1] - PTA: Production increases, downstream profit recovers, affected by OPEC+ policy [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to decline due to device投产 and increased hedging [1] - Short - Fiber: Factory devices resume, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - Benzene and Styrene: Supply increases, inventory accumulates, domestic import pressure rises [1] - Natural Gas: Limited upside due to weak domestic demand, supported by cost [1] - Propylene: Price fluctuates weakly due to macro - environment and demand [1] - PVC: Fluctuates due to supply pressure and inventory situation [1] - Calcium Carbide: Expected to rise due to approaching peak season and low inventory [1] - PG: International oil price supports, but fundamental factors limit upside [1] Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate may decline [1]