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房地产及建材行业双周报(2025、08、29-2025、09、11):建材“防内卷”政策持续落地,行业盈利有所改善-20250912
Dongguan Securities·2025-09-12 07:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policies in the building materials sector are being implemented, leading to improved industry profitability [2][4]. - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen are expected to stimulate short-term market activity, although long-term recovery will depend on sales data and corporate performance [2][4][23]. - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery due to self-regulation and cost optimization, with expectations for further profit increases in the second half of the year [2][4][41]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of September 11, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.72 percentage points [11]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities rose by 0.20% month-on-month and 2.73% year-on-year, while second-hand housing prices fell by 0.76% month-on-month and 7.34% year-on-year [21][23]. - The report suggests focusing on stable central state-owned enterprises and regional leaders in first and second-tier cities, such as Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) [2][23]. Building Materials Sector - The building materials sector has seen a 0.31% increase over the past two weeks, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 0.83 percentage points [24]. - The cement market is currently facing weak demand, with an average price of 314 RMB/ton, down 1 RMB/ton from the previous week [28][30]. - The glass industry is experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with limited price rebound potential, but there are structural opportunities in the fiberglass sector due to growth in emerging fields like wind power and electric vehicles [42]. - Recommendations for cement companies include Anhui Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) due to their solid fundamentals and attractive dividend yields [41][42].