2025年8月美国CPI数据点评：美国通胀温和上涨，为后续降息打开空间

Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to 0.2% previously, slightly exceeding the market forecast of 0.3%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month[2] Inflation Drivers - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in food, energy, and housing[3] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with beef prices significantly increasing by 2.7%[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, recovering from a decline of 1.1% in the previous month[4] Market Expectations and Fed Policy - The current inflation trend suggests a controlled environment for further interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut expected in September[3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in October have risen to 82.1%, up from 73.9% the previous day[7] - The probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is at 75.4%, increasing from 68.1%[7]