美国8月CPI点评：通胀慢热VS就业快冷

Inflation and Employment Trends - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and marking the highest level in the past seven months[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with previous values[1] - The month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] Employment Data and Market Reactions - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged to 263,000, the highest level since June 2023, indicating significant employment risks[3] - Following the CPI release, the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve increased to 90% for September, October, and December[3] - Major U.S. stock indices rose post-CPI announcement, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 1.4% respectively[3] Core Inflation Components - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, while energy prices increased by 0.7%, driven by a notable rise in gasoline prices[2] - Core goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with clothing, new cars, and used cars showing rebounds[2] - "Super core inflation," excluding food, energy, and housing, was reported at 0.12% month-on-month, consistent with previous months[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that employment risks outweigh inflation risks, leading to expectations of rate cuts in the near term[4] - Future rate decisions will depend on whether employment data stabilizes and the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair[4]