美国2025年8月CPI数据：通胀预期内上行，后续关注9月FOMC点阵图降息指引

Inflation Data - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 2.7% in July[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% and up from 0.2% in July[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations[2] Key Contributors to Inflation - Energy prices rebounded significantly, contributing to the inflation rise, while food prices held steady at 2.9% year-on-year[2] - Household food prices increased from 0% to 0.5% month-on-month, indicating a notable contribution from this category[2] - The housing services sector showed a year-on-year decline but rebounded month-on-month, attributed to seasonal demand and lower mortgage rates[2] Market Implications - The inflation data supports the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting, shifting market focus from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut" within the year[2] - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, while bond yields initially fell before rising again, indicating mixed market reactions[2] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of unexpected increases in import prices and a potential downturn in the U.S. economy and employment levels, which could impact future inflation trends[2]