黑色建材日报：成材持续累库，钢价震荡偏弱-20250912

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [1][2] - Iron ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [5][6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating [7] Core Views - Steel market is facing continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand, leading to a sideways-downward price trend [1] - Iron ore market shows limited supply-demand contradictions, with production recovering and inventory at a neutral level [3] - Coking coal and coke markets are under pressure from a new round of price cuts, with supply being loose and demand weakening [5][6] - Thermal coal market has a short-term stable price due to recovering supply and increasing demand, while the long-term supply remains ample [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3,092 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil at 3,334 yuan/ton. Spot trading was weak, and prices in some regions declined [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: Rebar production decreased but inventory increased, and demand showed no significant improvement. Plate production increased as mills resumed operations, with demand remaining resilient and inventory reaching a medium level [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is advised to be sideways with a downward bias, while no cross-period, cross-variety, cash-futures, or options strategies are recommended [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties dropped slightly. Trading volume at major ports reached 1.124 million tons, up 73.46% from the previous day. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 0.1171 million tons, and the profitability rate was 60.17%, down 0.87% [3] - Supply and Demand Logic: This week, iron ore shipments decreased significantly, especially from Brazil. Demand remained resilient, with hot metal production returning to a high level. Port and in-plant inventories increased slightly, while the stockpile at berths decreased, resulting in a neutral total inventory [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is advised to be sideways, and no other strategies are recommended [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures traded within a range, and the closing prices of the main contracts rebounded. Imported coal traders showed low enthusiasm, and purchases were mainly for immediate needs [5] - Logic and Views: Coking coal production is gradually recovering, but demand is weak due to the expected price cuts for coke. Coke supply is ample, while demand from steel mills is weakening as their profits shrink. The possibility of a new round of price cuts is increasing [5][6] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are advised to be traded sideways, and no other strategies are recommended [6] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices rose slightly. In Yulin, a few mines raised prices, while most lacked the basis for continuous increases. In Ordos, prices remained stable, and trading was steady. At ports, prices were stable, inventory continued to accumulate, and traders were more cautious. Pre-holiday restocking demand increased, and trading was fair. Imported coal had a price advantage as domestic coal prices strengthened [7] - Demand and Logic: Supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and demand from the chemical and metallurgical industries is being released. In the short term, coal prices will remain stable, while in the long term, the supply will remain ample. Attention should be paid to non-power coal consumption and restocking [7] - Strategy: No specific strategy is recommended [7]