花生周报：新季花生回落，盘面底部震荡-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The new - season peanut prices are falling, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. Traders can try selling the pk511 - P - 7600 option strategy, consider buying 05 peanuts at low prices, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [5][6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option Strategy: Try selling the pk511 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - Trading Logic: Peanut trading volume has decreased. The prices of general - purpose peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined, while the purchase prices of oil mills are relatively strong. The price of general - purpose peanuts in Henan is around 4.3 yuan per jin. Imported peanut prices are stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil has fallen, and the profit of oil mills from pressing has decreased. Downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanut oil and peanuts in oil mills is decreasing but still at a high level. The November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable. Some new peanuts have been listed, demand is weak, the output of new - season peanuts may increase or remain flat, and the planting cost has decreased. Peanut spot prices continue to fall, and futures are oscillating at the bottom [6]. - Strategy: The November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom. Consider buying 05 peanuts at low prices [6]. - Spread Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut Price: The purchase prices of oil mills and imported peanuts are stable, while the prices of general - purpose peanuts are falling. In Shandong, the price of large - grain peanuts in Junan is 4.1 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Henan, the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang is 4.3 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Liaoning, the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu is 3.95 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Jilin, the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu is 3.9 yuan per jin, remaining stable from last week. The general - purpose peanut market has average trading volume, and prices are falling. Most oil mills have stopped purchasing, and the basic purchase price is between 7300 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. The price of Sudanese old peanuts is 8150 yuan per ton, new peanuts are 8500 yuan per ton, and Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week [9][11]. - Domestic Demand: The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and peanut inventory has decreased. As of September 11, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 9.47%, a month - on - month increase of 4.21%. The arrival volume of oil mills has increased. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 65,600 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 37,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [13][15]. - Pressing Profit: The purchase price of peanuts by oil mills is stable, the price of peanut oil has fallen, and the pressing profit has decreased. The pressing profit of peanut oil mills is 135 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan per ton. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,700 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from last week. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is relatively strong, remaining stable at 3260 yuan per ton this week [17][19]. - Basis and Spread: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. This week, the November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable at around - 30 yuan. The basis between spot and futures has fallen [21][24]. - Peanut Import: The import volume of peanuts has decreased significantly. In July, the import volume of peanut kernels was 9500 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 103,000 tons, a 77% decrease compared to the same period last year. In July, the export volume of peanut kernels was 9000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative export volume was 95,000 tons, a 27% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the import volume of peanut oil was 42,000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume of peanut oil was 223,000 tons, a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [27][29]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Peanut Price: Charts show the historical price trends of Shandong general - purpose peanut kernels, oil mill procurement prices, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [33][34]. - Basis and Spread: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread of peanuts [38][39]. - Peanut Import and Export: Charts and data show the cumulative import volume of Chinese peanuts, cumulative export volume of peanut kernels, and the import volume of peanut oil, including the import volume from different countries and regions and the import price [41][59]. - Pressing Profit: Charts show the historical trends of the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of peanut oil in Shandong [44][45]. - Downstream: Charts show the operating rate of pressing plants, peanut pressing volume, and peanut oil inventory in oil mills [51][52]. - Peanut Oil Import: Charts and data show the import price of peanut oil and the monthly cumulative import volume of Chinese peanut oil, as well as the import volume from different countries and regions [57][59]. - Price Difference: Charts show the price differences between peanut oil and soybean oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal [61][65].