Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is under medium - term surplus pressure, with the trading logic switching between this pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, and the rebound space is increasingly limited. For strategies, a combination of previous high - level short positions and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [2]. - The precious metals market may remain strong before the Fed's September meeting, but caution is needed due to increased volatility after continuous rises [3]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., have different trends based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and macro - economic data. For example, copper has short - term upward space but limited, while aluminum is testing the resistance level [4][5]. - In the chemical product markets, such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, etc., they are mostly in a state of shock, affected by factors like supply - demand, policy, and cost [11][12]. - The steel and iron ore markets are influenced by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and policy. For example, steel prices are in a weak shock, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [13][14]. - In the agricultural product markets, including soybeans, corn, etc., the market trends are affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and trade policies. For example, soybeans may continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and corn may be strong before the new grain harvest and then weak [35][39]. - The livestock and poultry markets, such as pigs and eggs, are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and production capacity. For example, the pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market may see a change in production capacity in the fourth quarter [40][41]. - The financial markets, including stocks and bonds, are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, policy, and geopolitical situations. For example, the A - share market had a significant rise, and the bond market is in an adjustment phase [47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's November contract down 1.9%. The IEA's September report shows an increase in supply surplus, and the pressure is expected to be concentrated in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The trading strategy combines high - level short positions and out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: This week, FU warehouse receipts decreased by 6800 tons in total, and FU is relatively stronger due to geopolitical premiums [20]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In China, the import cost supports the domestic market, and it is expected to run strongly against oil in the short - term, but the futures market is limited by high - volume warehouse receipts and will run in a shock [22]. - Urea: Urea daily production has decreased slightly, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and inventory is high. Exports are progressing, but the supply - demand is still loose, and the market will remain weak in the short - term [23]. - Methanol: The methanol market continues to fluctuate at a low level. Port inventories are increasing, and the near - term reality is weak. However, with the increase in the load of coastal MTO plants and pre - holiday downstream stocking, the market is expected to stabilize in a shock [24]. Metals - Precious Metals: The US August CPI data met expectations, and the initial jobless claims reached a four - year high, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals may remain strong before the September meeting, but caution is needed due to increased volatility [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight, copper prices continued to rise. The US CPI increase and labor market data boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the dollar weakened. Domestic copper consumption and the upward range are sensitive to economic indicators. There is short - term upward space but limited [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly volatile, approaching the 21,000 - yuan mark. Downstream开工率 has seasonally increased, and inventory is likely to be low this year. It will continue to test the 21,000 - yuan resistance [5]. - Zinc: The US PPI boosts the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation, and LME low inventory drives the external market to rebound, pulling up the domestic market. Domestic mine TC has decreased, and short - term prices are supported. However, the supply - demand situation of supply increase and demand weakness remains unchanged, and it will fluctuate slightly above 22,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Lead: Refinery maintenance has increased, and inventory has decreased. However, consumption is weak, and the rebound is limited. The domestic market is stronger than the overseas market, and the inflow of overseas low - price goods restricts the rebound space. The cost of recycled lead provides support, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [9]. - Tin: Overnight, tin prices rose, and the key support was held this week. Overseas, LME inventory is increasing, and the position concentration is high. In China, attention is paid to social inventory changes. A small number of low - level long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. - Ferroalloys - Silicon Manganese: The iron water volume has recovered, and the output of silicon manganese has increased. The inventory has not increased, and the demand for futures and spot is good. The long - term manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to the continuation of relevant policies [17]. - Silicon Iron: The iron water volume has recovered, and the supply of silicon iron has increased significantly. The demand is fair, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the continuation of relevant policies [18]. Chemicals - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon slightly reduced positions and closed up. The market is in a re - balancing stage dominated by capital game. The spot price is stable, and the prices of batteries and components are rising. The market is under pressure and will run in a shock [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon reduced positions and closed up. There is an expectation of eliminating high - power - consumption and low - efficiency production capacity, but the actual effect remains to be seen. The supply is expected to increase by 5% in September, and the demand from downstream industries is expected to decline. It will run in a shock in the short - term [12]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is in a narrow - range shock. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a new high. The cost support is not obvious, and the price may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is in an intraday shock. The inventory has decreased, the spot performance is differentiated, and it will run in a wide - range shock [28]. - PX & PTA: Affected by the decline in oil prices, PX and PTA prices have weakened. PX short - process efficiency is good, but the output growth is limited. PTA is in a continuous de - stocking process, but the processing margin and basis are weak. The terminal demand is improving, and attention should be paid to the downstream stocking before the holiday and the polyester load - increasing rhythm [29]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The US soybean drought area has expanded, and the US soybean price has risen slightly. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a range shock, and the spot is slightly weak. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and a low - long strategy is recommended [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The prices of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report. The domestic situation is weak, but in the medium - long term, there is a supporting effect, and a low - long strategy can be considered [36]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The prices of North American oilseeds are under pressure, and the domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal demand is lackluster. The futures prices may rise slightly in a shock in the short - term, affected by the expectation of tight imports [37]. - Corn: Corn futures are in a narrow - range shock. The supply in Shandong is loose, and the price has decreased. The supply in Northeast China is strong, and the price has increased. Corn may continue to fluctuate strongly before the new grain harvest and then weaken [39]. - Livestock and Poultry - Pigs: Pig futures are weakly fluctuating, and the spot price has stabilized. There is a supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the policy of transportation is tightening. The current main contract price has fallen close to the initial level, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [40]. - Eggs: Egg futures are fluctuating, and the spot price is rising. It is in the seasonal rebound window. The industry has a high - inventory problem, and the production capacity needs to be deeply reduced. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, long positions can be considered, while attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [41]. Others - Shipping: The main shipping companies have continuously lowered their quotes, and the market freight rate has declined. The near - month contract has turned into a premium structure, and the spot price is approaching the cost line. The 10 - contract is expected to continue to correct downward, and the market will be under pressure in the short - term [19]. - Stock Index: A - shares had a significant rise, and the index futures also rose. The market is in a critical geopolitical stage, and the market style temporarily maintains an overweight of the technology - growth sector, and the Hang Seng Technology Index can also be considered [47]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures continue to adjust. Affected by the policy expectation of the third - stage fee reform of public funds, the market redemption pressure has increased. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may compete at the 1.8% mark, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].
国投期货：综合晨报-20250912
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-12 07:33