2025 年 8 月美国通胀数据点评：通胀温和：等待降息

Inflation Overview - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%) [9] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with July's figures [9] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, primarily driven by a rebound in used car prices, which increased from 0.5% to 1.0% [13] - Core services inflation remained stable, with rent inflation contributing significantly, while other service categories like medical and leisure services saw a decline [16] Employment Market Concerns - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level since June 2023 [20] - The labor market's ongoing weakness is expected to keep market focus on employment risks rather than inflation [20] Market Expectations - The market continues to favor "rate cut trades," with a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and expectations for cuts in October and December as well [22] - Despite the anticipated rate cuts, there are concerns about persistent inflation pressures post-cut, particularly if demand stabilizes [22] Risk Factors - There are renewed concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for continued unexpected slowdowns in the U.S. labor market [23]