纸浆周报：低位震荡，关注需求企稳情况-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The pulp market is currently in a low - level oscillation with a weak overall trend. Although there are some factors such as a new round of foreign market price hikes and industry players' reluctance to sell and support prices, the downstream paper mills' profit margins are under pressure and their acceptance is limited. The market expects the downstream demand to stabilize for a real "reversal". It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated at a low level with a weak overall trend [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Pulp Market Price: As of September 11, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.04 percentage points. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,209 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from last week, turning from an increase to a decrease [11]. - Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to July: In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp with an import value of $1.7652 billion and an average unit price of $613.56/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared to the same period last year [15]. - Port Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, up 0.71% from last week, and the increase rate widened by 0.19 percentage points [19][36]. - European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July: In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month - on - month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month - on - month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [23]. - Downstream Pulp Utilization Rates: Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main way of pulp consumption in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%. Non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of September 11, the weekly operating load rates of double - copper paper, double - offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.94, 1.90, 5.08, and 0.72 percentage points respectively compared to last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, up 0.71% from last week, and the increase rate widened by 0.19 percentage points. In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp with an import value of $1.545 billion and an average unit price of $582.36/ton. From January to August, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume remaining stable. A new round of foreign market price hikes has led to some reluctance to sell and support prices among industry players, but the downstream paper mills' profit margins are under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the transition between the traditional off - season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market outlook is weak. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize [36].