苹果周报：高位震荡，盘面或兑现减产预期-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current time is at the end of the old - season apple inventory clearance and the stage of waiting for the new - season late - maturing Red Fuji to be listed. The cold - storage remaining volume is low, and the supply is concentrated in Shandong. The cold - storage merchants are eager to sell. The recent rainfall in the northwest may affect the quality of early - maturing apples, leading to increased purchases of cold - storage apples and a slight price increase. Some specifications may still see a price increase of 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/jin. The market generally believes that the new - season apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase price of early - maturing apples in the northwest is higher than last year. The opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji is likely to be higher than the previous season. The market may reflect the previous production - reduction expectation, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [37] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over. AP2601 fluctuated at a high level, first falling and then rising [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - The inventory is lower than the same period last year. As of September 11, 2025, the total remaining volume of apples in national cold - storage is 255,800 tons, the lowest in the past five years. The remaining volume in Shandong's cold - storage is 182,500 tons, and that in Shaanxi is 58,400 tons [12][13] 3. Demand - side Situation - Inventory Clearance: As of September 11, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 1.94%, with a weekly decrease of 0.38 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 percentage points. The inventory clearance rate is 96.96%. At the end of the inventory clearance period, there are differences in the shipment situation among different cold - storages, and the data error has slightly increased [18] - Export Volume: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.39%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons, and the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to rebound [21] - Spot Price: As of September 12, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is stable. For 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin. For merchant's goods, the price of slice - red apples is 3.8 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and that of striped apples is 3.8 - 4.5 yuan/jin. The price of third - grade fruit is 2.5 - 2.6 yuan/jin, and the price of bulk goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The price of Red General is stable, with the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade red fruit at 3.5 - 3.6 yuan/jin, and the mainstream price of first - and second - grade semi - red fruit at 2.8 - 3.1 yuan/jin [33]