Great Wall Securities·2025-09-12 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) [4] Core Views - Alibaba is enhancing its "big consumption platform" strategy with the launch of Gaode's "Street Ranking," which supports offline dining and service consumption [1][2] - The integration of Gaode's services with Alibaba's existing platforms, such as Taobao, is expected to create synergies between in-store and delivery services, potentially increasing profit margins [2][3] - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for Alibaba, projecting revenues of CNY 1.06 trillion, CNY 1.18 trillion, and CNY 1.30 trillion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [3] Financial Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - FY2024A: 941,168 - FY2025A: 996,347 - FY2026E: 1,058,220 - FY2027E: 1,183,302 - FY2028E: 1,304,354 - Year-over-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 8.34%, 5.86%, 6.21%, 11.82%, and 10.23% for FY2024A to FY2028E [1][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million): - FY2024A: 79,741 - FY2025A: 129,470 - FY2026E: 107,108 - FY2027E: 137,785 - FY2028E: 167,027 - Year-over-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 9.97%, 62.36%, -17.68%, 28.64%, and 21.22% for FY2024A to FY2028E [1][3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the return on equity (ROE), expected to rise from 8.11% in FY2024A to 12.47% in FY2028E [1][3] Market Position - Gaode's average daily active users (DAU) reached 186 million by July 2025, significantly outperforming competitors [2] - The report suggests that Gaode is on track to become a "super app" in the domestic market, integrating various services such as maps, ride-hailing, reviews, and group buying [2]