金信期货观点-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of crude oil will fluctuate in a weak trend, and in the long term, the global crude oil market will face a situation of oversupply [3] - The price of PX will mainly fluctuate, and the supply - demand pattern of PTA is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, limiting its price rebound space [3] - The price of MEG will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and there is a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory [4] - The price rebound space of BZ and EB is limited [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase the oil production cap of 8 major oil - producing countries by 137,000 barrels per day in October compared to September [3] - The market is concerned about the upcoming 19th round of EU sanctions on Russia and Trump's secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [3] - After the peak energy demand season ends, the price will fluctuate in a weak trend in the short term, and there will be an oversupply situation in the long - term global crude oil market [3] PX & PTA - Domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 84.63%, unchanged from last week, and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.45% (+0.36%) [8] - The PX - naphtha spread remains at around $235 per ton [8] - Fuguida Chemical's 700,000 - ton PX device will start maintenance next week and restart in November [3][8] - South Korea's major petrochemical companies plan to cut naphtha cracking capacity, which will affect Asian PX production. China's PX import dependence is 19.9%, with 40% from South Korea [8] - PTA device changes are frequent, with two 2.5 - million - ton devices restarted, and the overall load is 74.95% (+4.3%) [3] - PTA processing fees have weakened to 129 yuan per ton, at a low level in recent years [3] - There is an expectation of a 3 - million - ton/year new PTA device being put into production in the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3] MEG - The MEG operating rate continues to rise, and port arrivals are scarce in early September. Port inventories will decline in the next two weeks and are at a historical low [4] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - month, suppressing the valuation of the 2601 contract [4] - In the short term, pay attention to the supply - demand gap risk under low MEG inventory [4] - The price of MEG is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [4] BZ & EB - The pure benzene operating rate remains high, with new domestic capacities concentrated in August - September, and the supply pressure is large, with high port inventories and possible further inventory accumulation [4] - The downstream operating rate of benzene has weakened again, and the overall profit is still poor [4] - The BZN has weakened and then stabilized [4] - The styrene operating rate is 74.98% (down 4.76% from last week), and new capacities will be gradually released from September - October, with supply expected to increase [4] - The 3S operating rate has rebounded slightly, but the downstream finished product inventory is high, and the procurement enthusiasm is limited [4] - The port inventory of styrene is slowly being depleted, and the price rebound space is limited [4] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry is 87.9%, up 0.57% from last week [26] - The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 62.42% (unchanged from last week), and the average order days are 14.55 days (up 0.66 days from last week), with a slight inventory accumulation in factories [26] - The terminal weaving market lacks overall driving force, downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market is still in the recovery stage [26] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene operating rate is 79.29% (down 0.14% from last week), and the styrene operating rate is 74.98% (down 4.76% from last week), with BZN dropping to around $120 per ton [34] - Among the downstream 3S, the PS operating rate is 61.9% (+0.9), the EPS operating rate is 61% (-8.48), and the ABS operating rate is 70% (+1.0), with the ABS inventory pressure being large [34] - In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downstream demand has improved month - on - month, and the styrene port inventory has started to decline [34]