原油周报：下跌空间或有限-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline on Friday was mainly due to fundamental negatives, such as OPEC+ accelerating production increases and the full inventory build - up of US oil products by EIA, which dampened market bullish sentiment. However, the possibility of short - term trading on this negative is low because the market has some expectations for OPEC+ production increases and the overall inventory pressure of US crude oil and refined products is not large [3][72]. - The main driver to watch next week is the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The market currently expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut. If it is just a matter of the expected cut, it may not be bullish for the market. Attention should be paid to whether there will be an unexpectedly large rate cut [3][72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Price Movement: This week, oil prices first rose and then fell. The Israeli attack on Qatar drove up the geopolitical premium, but it did not further develop. OPEC and IEA monthly reports re - emphasized the oversupply pressure, causing oil prices to give back their gains. As of September 11, the active contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at $62.24 per barrel, Brent crude oil at $66.31 per barrel, and the active contract of SC crude oil futures at 489.2 yuan per barrel [8]. - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spread was oscillating weakly [9]. - WTI Fund Net Long Positions: As of the week ending September 2, WTI fund net long positions were 27,323 lots, a week - on - week increase of 2,702 lots. Brent fund net long positions were 240,729 lots, a week - on - week increase of 38,583 lots. In the refined products market, gasoline net long positions increased by 7,853 lots, diesel by 9,927 lots, and heating oil by 6,329 lots [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+: At the September 7 meeting, OPEC+ announced that eight countries would adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025 from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023. The OPEC latest monthly report showed that in August, OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 509,000 barrels per day compared to July, with OPEC production increasing by 478,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia with an increase of 259,000 barrels per day. IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day [18]. - US: US crude oil production was oscillating at a high level. As of the week ending September 5, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 1,349.5 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 1,343.5 million barrels per day. However, with limited changes in the number of rigs, the production increase capacity was also limited, and producers' willingness to expand the mining scale was low at low oil prices [29]. - Risk: In the Russia - Ukraine situation, although there were signs of a willingness to negotiate peace before, there has been no progress or news regarding leader meetings or the previously mentioned security agreements. The conflict is still far from ending, and follow - up developments should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - US: US refined product demand declined in the off - season. As of the week ending September 5, gasoline demand was 850,800 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 609,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 barrels per day; distillate demand was 337,700 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 391,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 181,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 175,500 barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 51,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 258,000 barrels per day. The total US petroleum product demand was 1,978,100 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 871,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 398,000 barrels per day [32]. - Cracking Spread: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads were at neutral levels, and the valuation of refined product prices relative to crude oil prices was neutral [38]. - Refinery Data: Downstream refinery operations increased slightly and will enter the traditional autumn maintenance period. As of the week ending September 5, the US refinery capacity utilization rate was 94.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points; crude oil processing volume was 1,681,800 barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 59,000 barrels per day [41]. - China: The bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market has been greatly boosted recently, but the sentiment in the oil market is relatively flat. It mainly depends on whether the anti - involution policy can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and then boost crude oil demand. In July, crude oil processing volume continued to grow to 63.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 815,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.998 million tons, mainly due to the high - level operation of major refineries. The operation of local refineries has improved but is still at a low level, affected by the adjustment of refined product tax policies and the transformation of domestic energy demand [45]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - US: Both US crude oil and refined products had inventory builds. As of the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 424.646 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.939 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.503 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 405.224 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514,000 barrels. In the Cushing area, the weekly crude oil inventory was 23.86 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 360,000 barrels. In the refined products market, due to the off - season, all refined product inventories increased. Gasoline inventory was 219.997 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.458 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 1.555 million barrels; distillate inventory was 120.638 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 4.715 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 4.385 million barrels; jet fuel inventory was 43.267 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 474,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 4.723 million barrels [55][57][60]. - OECD: With the implementation of OPEC+ production increases, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased, and OECD inventories continued to build up. In August 2025, the global monthly crude oil supply was 10,669,000 barrels per day, demand was 10,457,000 barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 212,000 barrels per day (the previous value was 118,000 barrels per day). The OECD inventory at the end of August was 2.839 billion barrels, a month - on - month increase of 350 million barrels [67].