基于近期股汇双强分析：宏观预期改善延续

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The strong performance of the domestic stock market and the RMB reflects the relative advantages of the domestic fundamentals and the established shift in liquidity expectations. The positive feedback between the two further amplifies the strong performance. The bullish trend of the stock market in the future still has fundamental and policy support, and a long - position mindset can be maintained [1][10] Summary by Directory 1. Abnormal Trends of Stock and Exchange Rates - The domestic stock market has hit consecutive new highs, with the CSI 300 index breaking through 4,500, and the trading volume of the two markets reaching a maximum of three trillion yuan. The USD/CNY exchange rate has appreciated significantly since the end of August, decoupling from the US dollar index. The on - shore USD/CNY has dropped from around 7.18 to around 7.13, with an appreciation of about 0.5% in the last week of August, while the US dollar index has only dropped by 0.1% and basically fluctuated around 98 [2] 2. Mutual Reinforcement of Stock and Exchange Rates - Mutual Positive Feedback: Exchange rate appreciation benefits A - shares through foreign capital demand support and liquidity - driven valuation boosts. Stock market rises enhance exchange rate appreciation expectations through increased foreign capital inflows and improved economic expectations. The foreign capital inflows and valuation boosts brought by RMB appreciation were important reasons for the stock market breakthrough in late August, and the optimism from the stock market rise was the basis for the RMB's significant appreciation at the end of August [5] - Underlying Drivers: Domestically, policies such as real - estate policies have boosted economic expectations in August, while in the US, data divergence and external fiscal issues have increased recession expectations. In terms of liquidity, the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September is almost certain, and the market expects a relatively "aggressive" monetary policy easing path, which supports the stock market valuation and the RMB [6] 3. Future Outlook - Economic Fundamentals: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, with the main risk being the unexpected deterioration of tariff policies. The US fundamentals face multiple uncertainties such as large fiscal deficits, policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, inflation risks, and employment pressures [8] - Liquidity: The domestic monetary policy remains moderately loose, and the Fed's interest rate cut provides more room for domestic monetary easing. US employment data has increased the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. If there is no unexpected data adjustment, the Fed's interest rate cut will be dovish, which is beneficial for the release of domestic monetary easing expectations [9] 4. Conclusion - The strong performance of the domestic stock market and the RMB is based on the relative advantages of domestic fundamentals and the shift in liquidity expectations. The positive feedback between them further amplifies the trend. The stock market's strength in the future has fundamental and policy support, and a long - position mindset can be maintained, with the main risk being the unexpected deterioration of tariff policies [10]