沪铅期货日报-20250912

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand, but there are still strong expectations on the demand side. Although the market has declined today, the downside space is limited. Considering the approaching Fed rate cut and demand expectations, it may maintain a range-bound operation in the short term [10] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The table shows the daily quotes of Shanghai lead futures on September 10, 2025, including details of different delivery months such as previous settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest/change. The total trading volume is 66,980 lots, the total trading amount is 564,208.60, and the total open interest is 89,999 lots with an increase of 3,876 lots [5] 2. Spot Market - Today's spot price is 16,700 yuan/ton, and the previous trading day's spot price was 16,750 yuan/ton. Today's basis is -95 yuan/ton, and the previous trading day's basis was -180 yuan/ton [7] 3. Influencing Factors - Macroeconomic: In August, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. The US non - farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 [9] - Supply Side: For primary lead, smelters in Henan and Inner Mongolia started maintenance, offsetting the increase from the resumption of production of a smelter in Liaoning. For secondary lead, the raw material supply remained tight, smelters were still in a loss state, and the scale of production cuts expanded [9] - Demand Side: Recently, the consumption performance of lead - acid batteries was not prominent, and the seasonal consumption in the traditional peak season did not materialize. However, the implementation of new national standards in September and the effectiveness of anti - dumping sanctions tariffs in the Middle East in September may have a certain impact on the export of starting lead - acid batteries [9] 4. Market Outlook - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, but there are strong expectations on the demand side. The market may maintain a range - bound operation in the short term [10]