8月美国通胀数据点评：降息前最后一关：通胀可控已确认

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report Title: "The Last Hurdle Before Interest Rate Cuts: Inflation Control Confirmed - A Review of US Inflation Data in August 2025" [1] - Chief Analyst: Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - CPI and core CPI both increased in August, but the growth was limited, and the increase in core CPI was weaker than that of CPI [2]. - The increase in CPI was mainly driven by food and energy items, while core services showed controllable inflation under the slowdown of wage growth, and the real - estate market continued to cool down [8]. - Weak demand persists, and tariff exemptions are expected to further reduce inflationary pressure, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the market's expectation of a September rate cut remaining at 100% [8]. Group 4: Data Observation Price Indexes - In August, CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.84%, previous 2.7%) and 0.4% month - on - month (previous 0.3%). Core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 3.05%, previous 3.0%) and 0.3% month - on - month (same as previous) [2]. Energy and Food Items - Energy items: In August, the energy sub - item rose 0.7% month - on - month (previous - 1.1%), with gasoline prices turning from a decline to an increase (1.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since January). Electricity and pipeline gas prices also rose significantly, with year - on - year increases of 6.2% and 13.8% respectively [3]. - Food items: In August, the food sub - item increased by 3.2% year - on - year (higher than the overall CPI) and 0.5% month - on - month (inflation expanded from July's 0.0%), with significant month - on - month increases in fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish, and eggs [3]. Demand - Sensitive Indicators - Vehicle prices: Used car prices rose 1.0% month - on - month (previous 0.5%) and 6.0% year - on - year. New car prices also recovered, with a 0.3% month - on - month increase (previous 0.0%) and a 0.7% year - on - year increase (previous 0.4%) [4]. - Consumer confidence: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 58.2 in August (previous 61.7), the first decline in 4 months [4]. - Used car wholesale: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index showed that the year - on - year wholesale price dropped to 1.72%, and the month - on - month value was only 0.03% [4]. Demand - Lagging Indicators - Furniture prices: The month - on - month growth rate of furniture prices dropped to 0.1% (previous 0.7%), indicating that the impact of tariff costs on furniture prices is weakening and demand has not recovered [4]. Service - Related CPI - Service - related CPI: The month - on - month service CPI began to decline, and the year - on - year value remained the same. The housing market continued to cool down under the slowdown of wage growth [5]. Group 5: Deep Analysis - Inflation controllability: The increase in CPI in August was mainly due to volatile items, and core inflation was still controllable, which did not affect the expectation of an interest rate cut in September [8]. - Future trends: Weak demand continues, and tariff exemptions are expected to further reduce inflationary pressure, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates [8]. - Market reaction: The market regarded the inflation data as a positive signal. The FedWatch tool showed that the expectation of a September rate cut remained at 100%, and traders increased their bets on a rate cut in the second half of the year [8]. Group 6: Summary of Key Charts CPI and Core CPI Trends - Chart 1 shows the year - on - year trends of CPI and core CPI, including actual and predicted values [13][17]. - Chart 2 and 3 show the month - on - month trends of CPI and core CPI and their comparisons with previous years [13][18]. CPI Component Analysis - Chart 4 details the seasonally - adjusted month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various CPI components [13][20]. Other Market Indicators - Chart 5 shows the continuous decline of oil prices [13][21]. - Chart 6 shows that the used car wholesale price increased slightly with low volatility [13][21]. - Chart 7 shows that leading indicators of rent levels are on a continuous downward trend [13][23]. - Chart 8 shows that supply - chain pressure is decreasing while sales are slightly recovering [13][23]. - Chart 9 shows that the gap between average hourly wage growth and core CPI growth is narrowing [13][25]. - Chart 10 shows that the gap between average hourly wage growth and productivity growth is narrowing [13][26].