沪锌期货日报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - expected interest rate cut and low overseas inventory support the zinc price, while high domestic supply and weak demand suppress it. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: On September 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2510) fluctuated slightly up, closing at 22,215 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 83,700 lots and an open interest of 103,100 lots. The spot price weakened, and the basis changed from +55 yuan/ton the previous day to - 115 yuan/ton. With the continuous increase in domestic social inventory and the unfulfilled expectation of the downstream consumption peak season, the zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2]. - Variety Price: There are 12 contracts of Shanghai zinc futures, with a total open interest of 221,749 lots, a decrease of 3,963 lots compared to the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract zn2510 decreased by 5,145 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - Basis Data: The basis (spot - futures) on the day was - 115 yuan/ton, and the previous day's basis was +55 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Supply - side: In August, domestic refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.7%. Although some smelters will conduct maintenance in September, the production is expected to remain above 600,000 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) remains at a high level of 3,600 yuan/ton, and smelters have high enthusiasm for production [7]. - Demand - side: The traditional "Golden September" peak season has not shown obvious improvement. The galvanizing start - up rate in North China increased by 5 percentage points to 65% month - on - month, but the terminal orders are insufficient, and the market price of galvanized sheets has weakened steadily [7].