煤焦日报：政策预期扰动，煤焦震荡运行-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending September 12, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1336 million tons, a weekly increase of 33,200 tons per day. The latest ton - coke profit dropped by 29 yuan per ton to 35 yuan per ton due to the implementation of coke price cuts. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4055 million tons, a weekly increase of 117,100 tons per day, returning to the pre - parade production level. The total coke inventory increased slightly to 9.0624 million tons, mainly accumulating in the steel - mill segment. The market has mixed factors, and coke is oscillating within a range. Attention should be paid to potential new benefits from "stable growth" and "anti - involution" policies [5][35]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending September 12, the daily raw - coal output of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 1.856 million tons, a weekly increase of 155,000 tons, still 170,000 tons lower than the same period last year after the resumption of mine production post - parade; the daily clean - coal output was 728,000 tons, a weekly increase of 35,000 tons and 60,000 tons lower year - on - year. The combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1336 million tons, a weekly increase of 33,200 tons per day. The coking - coal inventory at all industrial - chain links decreased. The latest total inventory was 22.0288 million tons, a weekly decrease of 565,200 tons. The main de - stocking segment was independent coking plants, with an inventory decrease of 365,100 tons to 8.8354 million tons. The decline in downstream inventory was due to the weakening of the spot - market atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment on the demand side. The coking - coal supply has gradually stabilized after the previous "anti - involution" capacity verification. Short - term demand faces some pressure due to the shrinking steel - mill profits. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and "stable growth" support market sentiment. The coking - coal main contract is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to future policy changes [6][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market - based approaches to revitalize idle land. On September 11, Kong Weidong, the director of the Department of Natural Resources Development and Utilization of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that the ministry will guide pilot areas for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation to explore and promote the orderly flow and efficient allocation of land factors. It will refine the criteria for identifying inefficient land, promote the withdrawal of inefficient urban land, and encourage market - based revitalization of idle land [8]. - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal on September 12. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal (A27.5, V33, S1.1, G75, Mt4.0) was $57.4 per ton, and all 64,000 tons on offer were unsold [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,520 yuan, a weekly decrease of 3.18%, a monthly decrease of 3.18%, an annual decrease of 10.06%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,430 yuan, a weekly increase of 0.70%, a monthly decrease of 3.38%, an annual decrease of 11.73%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.33% [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,140 yuan, a weekly decrease of 3.39%, a monthly decrease of 3.39%, an annual decrease of 3.39%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.57%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,510 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1.95%, a monthly decrease of 4.43%, an annual increase of 1.34%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.58%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,550 yuan, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 4.91%, an annual increase of 1.31%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40% [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,625.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.43%. The highest price was 1,640.5 yuan, the lowest was 1,595.0 yuan, the trading volume was 27,338 lots, an increase of 4,745 lots, and the open interest was 47,597 lots, an increase of 658 lots [14]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,144.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.88%. The highest price was 1,152.0 yuan, the lowest was 1,125.0 yuan, the trading volume was 959,111 lots, a decrease of 105,254 lots, and the open interest was 697,002 lots, a decrease of 21,073 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts showing the inventory of coke (including independent coking plants, steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory) and coking coal (including mine - mouth, ports, steel mills, and independent coking plants), as well as other relevant industry data such as domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal screw - thread steel procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][22][28] 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is that it will oscillate within a range due to mixed market factors. Attention should be paid to potential new benefits from "stable growth" and "anti - involution" policies [35]. - The outlook for coking coal is that it will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Although the supply has stabilized, short - term demand faces pressure, and policy expectations support market sentiment. Attention should be paid to future policy changes [36].