甲醇日评20250912：低位震荡, 关注低多机会-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol price is currently in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - buying opportunities. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventories and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises, the low current spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - Methanol Futures Prices: On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.83%); MA05 closed at 2390 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.79%); MA09 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Among different regions, prices in Shaanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.47%), while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in other regions such as Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, and Inner Mongolia decreased to varying degrees [1] - Price Difference: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 12.50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Cost and Profit Situation - Cost: Coal spot prices in Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing also remained unchanged. The cost of coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged [1] - Profit: Methanol profits, including coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol, remained unchanged. However, the profits of Northwest MTO decreased by 82.80 yuan/ton (-636.92%), and the profits of East China MTO decreased by 34.50 yuan/ton (-6.54%). Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.60%), the profit of MTBE remained unchanged, and the profit of a certain product (possibly mis - written as "開發") increased by 10 yuan/ton (3.49%) [1] 3.3 Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated weakly, opening at 2404 yuan/ton, closing at 2387 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 493,157 lots and an open interest of 775,400, showing a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing positions [1] - Foreign Information: For non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - future, the reference negotiation range is +0.6 - 1%, and a few people are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of transaction dynamics. For other Middle - East regions' methanol shipments arriving in the near - far future, the reference negotiation is at +0 - 0.5%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5% [1] 3.4 Long - Short Logic - Downward Pressure: High port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland area suppress the upward space of methanol prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited [1] - Upward Potential: The current low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season of traditional downstream industries may help relieve the inventory pressure [1] 3.5 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, and the view score is 0 [1]