国信期货生猪周报：供应延续宽松，猪市压力仍存-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the live hog spot market first declined and then stabilized. The supply was relatively loose due to the continued increase in the slaughter of large - scale farms and the slow digestion of large fat pigs by retail farmers. The live hog futures market was mainly volatile. Fundamentally, as the piglet price falls and the policy promotes the orderly reduction of production capacity, it is beneficial to reduce the long - term supply pressure. In the medium and short term, the potential slaughter volume will remain at a high level until the end of this year. The sales volume of fattening pig feed continued to grow well in August, indicating sufficient live hog inventory. The enterprise slaughter plan in September is still increasing, and retail farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs, so the supply will remain loose and the pressure on the pig market will be difficult to relieve. The operation suggestions are to be bearish with a side - way trend for single - side trading and to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market first declined and then stabilized last week, with loose supply. The futures market was volatile. In the long - term, the falling piglet price and policy - driven production capacity reduction are conducive to reducing supply pressure. In the medium and short - term, the supply will remain loose and the pig market pressure is hard to relieve. The operation suggestions are single - side bearish and spread reverse arbitrage [7] 70. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operation - In case of excessive price decline, the national level does not start temporary reserve purchase for the third - level warning, considers it for the second - level warning, and starts it for the first - level warning. Local areas follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increase, in the market's cyclical fluctuation, the central reserve release starts for the second - level warning and increases the release for the first - level warning. In case of special situations like major animal epidemic risks, after the first - level warning, the release is mainly concentrated in key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, but generally not higher than the central level [70]