焦煤市场周报：扰动下降多空反复，盘面延续震荡运行-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is experiencing reduced disturbances with repeated long - short battles, and the futures price is expected to continue oscillating between 1100 - 1200 for the main contract. The market is affected by macro - policies, overseas events, and supply - demand dynamics. Macro - wise, policies like the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen and positive foreign trade data have an impact. Overseas, new railway construction in Russia and US employment data revisions are factors. On the supply - demand side, supply rebounds at the mine end while the utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and imports have a decreasing cumulative growth rate. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - 523 coking coal mines had a daily average raw coal output of 185.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.6 million tons [7]. - 314 independent coal washing plants had a daily refined coal output of 26.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons [7]. - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1849.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.94 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.62% [7]. - The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 refined coal was 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton [7]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [7]. - The daily average pig iron output was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Multiple districts in Shenzhen relaxed purchase restrictions; China's August exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month [8]. - Overseas: Russia launched a new railway with an annual coal transportation capacity of 50 million tons; the US non - farm employment was revised downward [8]. - Supply - demand: The impact of administrative production cuts at the beginning of the month subsided, mine supply rebounded, the utilization rate of independent coal washing plants decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months. Supply decreased, inventory decreased significantly week - on - week, and inventory was at a neutral level [8]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Strategy: Due to policy information disturbances in the macro - environment, the futures price fluctuated between long and short positions. It is recommended to treat the main coking coal contract as oscillating between 1100 - 1200 [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - As of September 12, the coking coal futures contract open interest was 881,900 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 18,875 lots [14]. - As of September 12, the spread between the coking coal 5 - 1 contracts was 81.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.0 points [14]. - As of September 12, the number of coking coal registered warehouse receipts was 500 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1000 lots [18]. - As of September 12, the ratio of the January futures contracts of coke to coking coal was 1.42, unchanged from the previous week [18]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of September 11, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (No. 5, Ganqimaodu Port) was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [26]. - As of September 12, the coking coal basis was 5.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 80.5 points [26]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Industry Supply - This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 82.7%, a week - on - week increase of 6.9%. The daily average raw coal output was 185.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.6 million tons; raw coal inventory was 473.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons; the daily average refined coal output was 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons; refined coal inventory was 254.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.6 million tons [30]. - This week, the utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47%. The daily refined coal output was 26.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons; refined coal inventory was 289.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.4 million tons [30]. 3.3.2 Industry Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1849.57 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.94 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.62% [34]. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises was 752.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 10.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86 days [34]. - This week, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 793.73 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03 million tons, and the available days of coking coal were 12.81 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [49]. 3.3.3 Downstream Demand - This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [43]. - This week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [43]. 3.3.4 Upstream Supply - In July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the daily average output was 12.29 million tons. From January to July, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [53]. - In July 2025, China's coking coal output was 40.8938 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 tons [53]. - In 2024, China imported 540 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, setting a new record high, including 121.895 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year increase of 19.62% [55]. - From January to July 2025, China imported 62.445 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. The main import sources were Mongolia, Russia, Canada, and Australia, with Mongolia accounting for about 47% [55].