Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:39Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market continued its downward trend. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,600 - 1,660 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the near future, some idle plants have resumed production, increasing the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to stop production, and 5 - 6 idle enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the output may increase. The domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the reserve demand has not started significantly. The trading activity in the domestic market is low, providing limited support for the urea market. The improvement of industrial demand is less than expected. Although the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded week - on - week, enterprises mainly produce based on sales, and the short - term adjustment of the operating rate is expected to be limited. This week, the inventory of enterprises varied, but the overall inventory increased. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports continued to accelerate. Some enterprises' inventory decreased due to the execution of export orders, while the inventory of non - exporting urea enterprises slowly increased due to the slow progress of domestic demand. Due to the low trading sentiment in the domestic market, the short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,700 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Highlights Summary - Market Trend: The domestic urea market continued to decline this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,600 - 1,660 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - Market Outlook: Some idle plants have resumed production, increasing the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, 1 enterprise is expected to stop production, and 5 - 6 idle enterprises will resume production. The domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the reserve demand has not started significantly. The industrial demand improvement is less than expected. The inventory of enterprises varied, but the overall inventory increased. Urea exports continued to accelerate. The short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,700 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Trend: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed lower, with a weekly decline of 2.92% [9]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of September 12, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 55 [14]. - Open Interest Analysis: No detailed information provided. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 11, there were 8,897 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 598 from last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of September 11, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [26]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of September 11, the FOB price of urea in China was 415 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - Basis: As of September 11, the urea basis was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: As of September 10, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 11, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.11 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. 3.3.2 Industry - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of September 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 129.93 tons, an increase of 2.03 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%. The capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, an increase of 1.24% from the previous period, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [40]. - Inventory: As of September 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.94 tons, a decrease of 7.15 tons week - on - week, a decline of 11.52%. As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 113.27 tons, an increase of 3.77 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.44% [43]. - Exports: According to customs data, in July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [46]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.68 percentage points. Next week, enterprises will mainly produce based on sales, and the overall operating rate is expected to be adjusted limitedly. As of September 11, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.38%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from last week [51].