Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:51Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the situation is volatile with alternating bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, the market is mainly priced by the industry. Coke is facing a second round of price cuts, and the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend. The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro Aspect: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly launched a special rectification campaign for network chaos in the automotive industry. China's August PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]. - Overseas Aspect: Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed before the end of 2025. The US may pressure the G7 to raise tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case in early November [8]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: The current iron - water output is 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton [8]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of September 12, the position of coke futures contracts was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 983 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 137.0, a net increase of 28.0 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume was 1,520 lots, a net increase of 310 lots. The screw - coke ratio of the futures main contract was 1.92, a net increase of 0.01 points [12][18]. - Spot Market: As of September 11, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal at the Ganqimao Port in Mongolia was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the coke basis was - 150.0 yuan, a decrease of 98.5 points [26]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Coking Plant: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.58%, an increase of 2.97%. The daily coke output was 53.30 tons, an increase of 2.09 tons. The coke inventory was 43.91 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 752.00 tons, a decrease of 28.95 tons. The available days of coking coal were 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.86 days [32]. - Downstream: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared to last week. As of September 5, 2025, the total coke inventory was 860.55 tons, an increase of 6.40 tons [36]. - Inventory Structure: The inventory at 18 ports decreased by 2.45 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 9.58 tons [40]. - Export Situation: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [44]. - Real Estate Data: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities was 1.346 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.19% [48].