瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [7] - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China exceeded the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production. Before the National Day holiday, mid - and downstream inventory restocking began, and some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia increased their external procurement, resulting in a decline in inland enterprise inventory levels this week. Port inventory continued to accumulate significantly. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels is expected to remain stable, and port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. The demand side saw a decline in the methanol - to - olefin operating rate due to the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, but it is expected to rise after hedging [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the domestic port methanol market was strong, and the inland market prices rose. The low inventory of enterprises and increased external procurement of olefins led to low available circulation of goods, and downstream and traders actively followed up due to the buying - on - rising mentality [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreased, while port inventory continued to accumulate significantly. Next week, port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the olefin operating rate is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.49% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of September 12, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 6 [16] - Position analysis: No specific content provided - Warehouse receipts: As of September 11, there were 14,979 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 4,943 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of September 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2,292 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2,122.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Foreign spot price: As of September 11, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 263 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [33] - Basis: As of September 11, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 94.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of September 10, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 11, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.11 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] - Industry: As of September 11, China's methanol production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%. As of September 10, the total port inventory was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period; the inventory of sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%; from January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of September 11, the methanol import profit was 15.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22 yuan/ton from last week [44][49][52] - Downstream: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16%. As of September 12, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 1,024 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [55][58]