有色日报：宏观回暖，有色普涨-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: Last night, Shanghai copper increased in position and rose, standing above the 80,000 mark, and LME copper stood above the $10,000 mark. Today, copper prices maintained a strong operation, with the position volume continuing to rise. The inflation in the US in August met expectations, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the overall non - ferrous metals rose. The domestic industrial peak season provided stronger support for the futures price. Technically, the futures price increased in position and rose above the 80,000 mark, with strong upward momentum [5]. - Aluminum: Last night, Shanghai aluminum increased in position and rose, and maintained a strong operation today, with the main futures price standing above the 21,000 mark. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. There was a concentrated pick - up phenomenon in LME warehouses, leading to a tight regional supply, making the aluminum price stronger than the non - ferrous metals sector. Technically, the aluminum price broke through the oscillation high since July, with strong upward momentum [6]. - Nickel: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased in position and fell. The overseas interest rate cut expectation increased, pushing up the non - ferrous metals sector. The domestic nickel ore port inventory and the SHFE nickel inventory continued to rise, which was negative for the nickel price. In the short term, the macro - environment promoted the general rise of non - ferrous metals, and the nickel price might have a low - level rebound trend. The willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions was strong. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the August high [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: Enterprises that reduced or stopped production due to environmental inspections in early September have fully resumed production. After the copper price rose this week, the supply in the recycled copper raw material market increased. The operating rate of SMM's scrap - produced anode plate enterprises this week was 51.89%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise by 3.84 percentage points to 55.73% next week [9]. - Nickel: On September 12, the prices of refined nickel in the Shanghai market were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 124,250 - 124,450 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 122,550 - 122,650 yuan/ton, up 1,720 yuan/ton; nickel beans were 124,550 - 124,650 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Relevant Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [22][24][26] - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]