原油：原油震荡下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term. In the short term, due to the partial release of the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting and other factors, it is recommended to gradually stop profit and exit short positions [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - As the peak travel season ends, EIA data shows that US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and the IEA raises the surplus forecast. Saudi Aramco cuts prices, and there are uncertainties in India's oil procurement. With weakening demand and increasing supply, it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term. Short - term short positions can be gradually stopped for profit due to factors like the release of OPEC+ meeting negatives and rising geopolitical risks [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 dropped 2.74% to 475.3 yuan/ton, with a low of 473.7 yuan/ton and a high of 483.5 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 635 to 21,281 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global oil inventory to increase by about 210 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It raises the 2025 Brent crude average price to $67.80/barrel but predicts it will fall to $59/barrel in Q4 2025. OPEC maintains the 2025 and 2026 global crude demand growth forecasts. IEA raises the 2025 supply and demand growth forecasts. US EIA data shows that crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories have exceeded expectations, and overall oil inventories are increasing [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's July production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day, and August production increased by 478,000 barrels per day. US production increased by 72,000 barrels per day in the week of September 5. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude products decreased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, driving the single - week supply of US crude products to decrease [4]