Oracle(US:ORCL) Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:58Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ChiNext Index has reached a new high after the current round of adjustment [4]. - Oracle's 40% surge has activated the A-share computing power, chip, and artificial intelligence sectors [7]. - Nearly $40 billion in foreign capital flowed into Chinese stocks and bonds in August, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [10]. - The market style has shifted towards mid - cap growth, and the CSI 500 index futures contract has reached a new high [19]. - There is a high probability that funds will continue to flow into the A - share market, and the market is expected to be bullish, but currently, the major indices are still in a shock range [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The ChiNext Index reached a new high after the current round of adjustment [4]. - Driven by Oracle's surge, the 5G communication ETF in the computing power chain hit the daily limit on Thursday [12]. - The Sci - tech Innovation Board strengthened, with the Sci - tech Innovation Chip Design ETF and the Sci - tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF rising continuously [14][17]. - The market style shifted towards mid - cap growth, and the CSI 500 index futures contract reached a new high [19]. Capital Inflow - In August, foreign investors invested nearly $45 billion in emerging market stocks and bonds, with China accounting for the majority. China's stocks and bonds received a net inflow of $39 billion, and it was the month with the largest capital inflow into Chinese stocks since February [10]. - According to Goldman Sachs data, global hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks (including A - shares and Hong Kong stocks) in August reached a new high since September 2024, and their positions in Chinese stocks rose by 76 basis points to a two - year high [11]. - As of September 8, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, and 2.65 million new A - share accounts were opened in August, indicating continuous capital inflow [24]. - In July, the new RMB deposits of non - banking financial institutions increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and funds are accelerating their transfer to the stock market [27]. - Bond funds have been subject to large - scale redemptions, and funds from the bond market are continuously flowing into the stock market [33]. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - Outlook: The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3900 points for the third time on Friday, and the major indices of the two markets are still in a shock range. It cannot be determined that the current technical adjustment has ended. The global re - allocation of financial assets away from the US is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. Citi believes that the August CPI report provides more basis for the Fed to cut interest rates, and it is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points in the next five FOMC meetings [22]. - Trading Strategies: - For stock index futures directional trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back after reaching the previous high, and the index is still in a shock range [22]. - For stock index option trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back after reaching the previous high, the range shock has not ended, and it is recommended to continue to wait and see [23]. Domestic Economic Data - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rose to 5.6%, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the upward movement of the stock market [30]. - In August, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the CPI of consumer goods increased by 0.1% month - on - month, showing signs of getting out of deflation [36]. - In July, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.58 trillion yuan, with an investment slowdown and a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.3% [39]. - In July, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 1.88 trillion yuan, with an investment slowdown and a year - on - year growth rate of - 2%, reflecting the financial difficulties of local governments [42]. - In July, the new housing start area and the commercial housing sales area weakened again [45]. - In July, the monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.24 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.0%. Consumption is expected to be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [48]. International Economic Data - The US non - farm payrolls data was revised down by 912,000 people, strengthening the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September [51]. - The Fed signaled a possible interest rate cut in September. US companies neither recruit nor lay off employees, and employees do not resign, creating a strange balance in the labor market [53]. - In July, the US capital goods import amount reached $96.1 billion, a new historical high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.1%, indicating an acceleration of the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re - industrialization" process [56]. - In August, the US PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than expected [59]. - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in August [62]. Investment Strategy - Continue the strategy of collecting discounts for the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index 2512 contracts, which can earn both the index increase return and the discount spread return [64].